The Bebo Death Cult

Submitted by JMB on Wed 23/Jan/2008

Sky News, The Daily Mail and other media sources are today reporting the existence of a potential "death cult" in South Wales.

The copycat suicides of seven young people in a Welsh town have sparked fears of an internet death cult. All the victims - aged between 17 and 27 - were from Bridgend and hanged themselves within the past year. Some knew each other while several had posted their profiles on networking site Bebo.

These deaths are a tragedy, and I offer my condolences to the families for the loss of their loved ones. But is there really evidence for the existence of a "death cult"?

A quick precis for the uninitiated: Bebo is a Social Networking tool for the post-literate generation, with a high take-up amongst young adults in Britain. Some suggest a class divide between high-income Facebook/MySpace users and low-income Bebo users, although there is no particular evidence to support this. Certainly, Bebo is a very easy way to throw up a personal web-site and create links to your friends.

There are several reasons to be sceptical that these deaths imply the existence of a "death cult". The obvious logical flaw is to confuse correlation with causation. The contention of the Police and the Media is that the suicide of seven young people with Bebo pages, in a given area, is unusual. But most young people in the UK participate in some form of online Social Network. And Bebo is - by some measures - the most popular Social Networking tool. Therefore it is not unreasonable that an entirely random collection of seven British young people would be Bebo users, regardless of any other commonality between them.

So the real question is: Are the 7 suicides unusual?

Bridgend is both a town and a county, with a population of respectively 40,000 and 130,000. If we assume that the seven people do in fact all live in the town, then should we regard seven deaths in a population of forty thousand as more than an ordinary tragedy?

The Daily Mail reports:

Local people fear the hangings are linked to a chilling internet cult which has become "a cool thing to do" in the town.

The UK suicide rate for people between 15-44 is around 17.5 deaths per 100.000. Therefore we might expect the average annual death rate from suicide in the town of Bridgend to be around 7 incidents. But looking at the biographical data, many of these young people did not live in the town of Bridgend, but the county of Bridgend.

  • David Crole (18) from Porthcawl, near Bridgend.
  • David Dilling (19) from Pyle, a village near Bridgend.
  • Thomas Davies - from North Cornelly, Bridgend.
  • Zachary Barnes (17) from Wildmill, Bridgend.
  • Liam Clarke (20) from Bridgend
  • Gareth Morgan (27) from Bridgend
  • Natasha Randall (17) from Blaengarw, Bridgend.

And if we look at the dates of their deaths:

  • David Crole (18) - January 2007 September 2006 (Update, Mr Crole died around Sept 2006, but his body wasn't found until Jan 2007)
  • David Dilling - February 2007
  • Thomas Davies - February 2007
  • Zachary Barnes (17) - August 2007
  • Liam Clarke (20) - December 2007
  • Gareth Morgan (27) - January 2008
  • Natasha Randall (17) - January 2008

we see that there is nothing in this data to suggest any sort of pattern. This is even more obvious is we look at the given places of residence on a map:

RED X BLUE 1
Name: David Crole
Age: 18
Date of Death: September 2006
Residence: Porthcawl, near Bridgend.
BLUE 2
Name: David Dilling
Age: 19
Date of Death: February 2007
Residence: Pyle, near Bridgend.
BLUE 3
Name: Thomas Davies
Age: 20
Date of Death: February 2007
Residence: North Cornelly, Bridgend.
BLUE 4
Name: Zachary Barnes
Age: 17
Date of Death: August 2007
Residence: Wildmill, Bridgend.
BLUE 5
Name: Liam Clarke
Age: 20
Date of Death: December 2007
Residence: Bridgend
BLUE 6
Name: Gareth Morgan
Age: 27
Date of Death: January 2007
Residence: Bridgend
BLUE 7
Name: Natasha Randall
Age: 17
Date of Death: January 2007
Residence: from Blaengarw, Bridgend.
INVISIBLE

Powered By GMapEZ

Although this may not be of any comfort to the families of those lost, the people of Bridgend can at least be reassured that this "Death Cult" is an invention of the media. It is disappointing to see that South Wales Police are colluding in the scaremongering.

Update: Massive coverage on Channel 4 and ITV as well. For goodness sake, does no one do basic research anymore?

 

Comments

Errrmmm

Submitted by Dizzy on Thu 24/Jan/2008.
I'm sorry, but I don't understand what the relevance of the Bridgend town to Bridgend county when the point about a social networking site like Bebo is that people within a given geographic area can link up more easily. Also, whilst you're right to note the inaccuracy of suggesting all of them lived in the town, that does not in itself disprove that there is a connection between them other than a website. In fact there are connections between them I believe as there are photographs of some of them together, Natasha Randell and Liam Clarke I believe. All you have done is show that there has been sloppy reporting between "town" and "county". You;ve then used this to make equally sloppy leaps. First you've made a reference to suicide rates and said what we can "expect" within a post where you begin by noting that correlation and causality are not the same thing. Statistical expectation, another form correlation, and reality are not the same thing either, especially when the figure you provide is one for the entire population of some 50 million plus and makes no seeable distinction of regional variation. What I find most bizarre though is how you've taken the sloppy reporting of town vs county and inductively sought out evidence, flawed evidence mind you, that will fit the assertion that there is no connection between the deaths. The fact that they live within less thana few miles of each other for a start is not a problem. It only becomes a problem when one tries to take a nationally measured statistic, extrapolate it to a regional area with the assumption that the national measure can be uniformly applied. You're stating that the "death cult" narrative is an invention of the media. It may very well not be a true representation and a typical reaction, however, you haven't debunked the possibility at all. Instead of mistaking correlation for causality you've started from a flawed premise with your data and bedrock assumptions.

"Death Cult" or the Expected Norm

Submitted by JMB on Thu 24/Jan/2008.
The onus on those proposing the "Death Cult" hypothesis i- in the absence of some actual concrete evidence - is to prove there is a pattern of unusual deaths. But it is clear that the number of suicides in this area, in this time frame, do not constitute any sinister pattern, and are entirely consistent with societal norms.

These seven young people have ages ranging from 17-27, live in an area with a 20 mile radius, with a population of around 130,000, and the deaths occured over a 16 month period. There is no pattern! And there is no "smoking gun" to suggest that Bebo had anything to do with it, other than being a popular Social Networking site amongst young people.

The national statistics for suicide are stable over many years, and if anything are likely to understate the suicide rates in the Bridgend area - where there is both social deprivation and high youth unemployment. It is entirely legitimate to draw inferences from these correlations, since they are justified by an underlying causal relationship.

I dont think it was just

Submitted by Anonymous on Sat 16/Feb/2008.

I dont think it was just about bebo being a big part of it..i has alot to do with the whole internet..i watched the news last week and a girl hung herself because someone said that this girl had to lay down her life for something stupid that she did..
there was also a website linkin to somone elses death..even showing a girl the length the rope had to be!.There should be more support groups & people that these young people can go to in confidence..to insure something like this doesnt happen..and if anyone comes across these websites..they should be immediatly reported and deleted so people cant get ideas &even support from various sick people in this country.

In the deaths in Bridgend.they must have been linked suicides because they are all friends in different ways.

Or make a support page on bebo..that is active!..and make it clear that its there for people to actually know that they can talk about things like this.

Peer Pressure

Submitted by JMB on Sat 16/Feb/2008.

I'd be interested to get some more information about that story you mentioned - I did some pretty silly things as a youth in response to peer pressure and a desire to fit in, but fortunately suicide was never a consideration.

The reasons for self-harm are myriad - from mental illness or deep despair to failed romance and even a desire for remembrance (martyrdom some would call it). Government does not have the power to resolve these problems; only friends and families have the means and opportunity.

I'm sure many young people come across information about suicide and self-harm on the internet - and through friends and associates - and take no note of the suggestion. An outside influence does not lead to destructive behaviour without some internal emotional vulnerability. So I don't think the problem can be solved by monitoring and censorship of the Internet, although in some ways that might seem easier than rescuing people from their own doubts and fears.

But I stand by my original piece - there's no "cult"; no wide-scale, planned suicide pacts. (Sky News are now trying to sell a pattern of 14 deaths)

JMB

17 deaths - not a coincendence!

Submitted by Selina Wragg on Wed 20/Feb/2008.

I'm sorry but I have to err on the side of 'something dodgy is going on'.  It's not right, or 'pattern' for so many deaths to occur in such a short space of time and in such a small distance from each other.  I agree that the media have dramatised the "death cult" angle, but then that is what they do...

The difference of it being Bridgend county and not Bridgend the town is irrelevant.  The deaths of so many people, all of a similar age, is suspicious and I think that more needs to be looked into to definitely rule out whether there is some cult or pact among these youths, rather than people relying on speculation.  It doesn’t bear to think about but if it is proved that an organisation or group has been formed then it will be those who rubbished the claims of a cult who will effectively have blood on their hands.  When a human life is at stack surely we as a society owe it to those who have already died, and those who may still become victim, to do all we can and explore every avenue to ensure these suicides stop!

Selection Bias

Submitted by JMB on Wed 20/Feb/2008.

I'm afraid the death of so many people of a similar age  (between 17-27) in such a period of time (in this case 17 months) is not unusual. If similar suicides in other areas of the country were reported as they happened, there would be no room in the newspapers for anything else. Around 10,000 people every year in the UK commit suicide; many more self-harm.

I hope that rates of suicide and self-harm do come down, but I don't think it's within the power of government to make this happen in the short term. One cannot legislatively fix a broken heart, or judicially mandate that someone cease despairing.

Selection Bias? Hmmm....

Submitted by Selina Wragg on Thu 21/Feb/2008.

 

"If similar suicides in other areas of the country were reported as they happened, there would be no room in the newspapers for anything else."  - I agree, but I don't think that these suicides are common across the UK, that is the whole reason they have attracted media attention.  Where and when have there been 17 suicides all within a 30 mile radius of each other in such a small space of time.  To believe that this sort of this is not unusual I feel is wrong.  Copycat suicides are common, true, but these do not usually roll into double figures!

 

"... I don't think it's within the power of government to make this happen in the short term. One cannot legislatively fix a broken heart, or judicially mandate that someone cease despairing."  - True, but surely if there is a suspicion of foul play, or pre-meditation then the authorities and/or the government should deem it necessary to intervene and investigate thoroughly, by any means necessary, to prevent further incidents and tragedies occurring? 

 

Analysing the Media Response

Submitted by JMB on Thu 21/Feb/2008.

The suicides have attracted media attention because many of the victims were photogenic, and their photos were readily available. You're begging the question by calling them copy cat suicides.

The onus on those proposing the death-cult hypothesis is to offer proof. There is no "smoking gun", just a quantity of suicides commensurate with the population and period of study.

After the initial cluster of seven (25 mile radius, 10 year span of victim age, 16 month period) a special police task force seized computers away and found nothing. South Wales Police are now responsibly downplaying the scare, so well done to them.

The social network links are the key to the scare. The problem is that they are treated as transitive relationships, when they are in fact non-transitive. Consider the first seven reported deaths (these were the ones in the period September 2006 to January 2008). The reported relationships were:

  • Dale Crole (A) was "best friends" with David Dilling (B)
  • Thomas Davies (C) was a "school friend" of A and B
  • Zachary Barnes (D) was a "friend of the family" of C
  • Liam Clarke (E) was a "close friend" of A
  • Gareth Morgan (F) was a "friend" of E
  • Natasha Randall (G) was a "friend" of E

Let's look at these as a diagram:


There is no pattern, no suspicion of foul play, no story. There is just the "ordinary tragedy" of humanity.

Here's an alternate narrative for the first seven suicides.

  • 'A', unhappy, unemployed and under the influence of a strong, mood-altering depressant drug tragically takes his own life.
  • B, best friend of A, is deeply upset by the death of his friend and takes his own life
  • C, a friend of B , is deeply upset by the death of his friend and takes his own life
  • In an unrelated incident, D takes his own life
  • In an unrelated incident, over a year after his friend A committed suicide, E committed suicide
  • In unrelated incidents, G and F, both of whom were "bebo" friends of E, commit suicide.

But this story won't fill as many hours of 24 hour TV. The Telegraph has a good analysis.

You may not wish to believe these levels of suicide are unusual, but...that's the way it is. For comparison (with a different figure for the UK) here are the suicide rates across the world.

If you refer back to my

Submitted by Selina Wragg on Tue 26/Feb/2008.

If you refer back to my comment I said that "copy cat suicides are common, true." I did not state that these were copy cat suicides; two very different statements my friend.

You seem incredibly defiant in proving that these are most definitely not related deaths.  I on the other hand am merely stating that something doesn't seem right and that a thorough investigation is needed to PREVENT any further deaths SHOULD this be more than just coincidence.  Don't be angry with the media for reporting another angle on this tragedy, where human lives are concerned I believe that all possibilities need to be addressed with utter seriousness. 

But thanks for the pretty picture anyway... 

You can't analyise these

Submitted by Anonymous on Tue 27/May/2008.
You can't analyise these deaths like a maths problem about statistics????!!!You even have a little map and everything?? At the end of it all,it comes down to how people these days value the gift of life. They obviously do not have a high regard for it if they think they can take their life into their own hands... and its true that people drawing 'rip' whiteboards on bebo and the says thing of the week is to have 'rip (name) xxxxxxxxxxxxx' because even though for the likes of someone like you (educated) bebo is simply a 'social networking site' responsible for nothing, the same doesnt hold for all the teenagers who use it, especially those of them who use are under educated (in various senses of the word)because it's true that if they then spend a significant amount of their time on bebo, they learn their social norms from this environment. And if that classifies posting a comment, writing a saying or drawing a whiteboard as normal responses to a young person hanging themselves, then WE DO HAVE A PROBLEM the 'suicide cult' may exist but i think its really a lack of appreciation for life cult.

nobodys asking anyone to

Submitted by Anonymous on Tue 27/May/2008.
nobodys asking anyone to stop grieving.. thats a part of being human,no one can stop you doing that.. and no ones wants to legisitavely fix a broken heart.. its that we need to change the WAY they grieve and the WAY the try to fix their broken hearts. There isnt much point to your comment at all if you dont even believe that a change can be made. . so dont even bother leaving your figures and i do hope's if you going to be hopeless. If you go around saying that things wont happen and things wont change then the likelyhood is, they wont. We need to not just say and believe that they CAN and will make this better but DEMAND it.

Mainstream media making things worse as usual....

Submitted by Ali on Sat 07/Jun/2008.
I sincerely doubt that there's any kind of suicide cult. I think it's far more likely to be a chain reaction caused by grief and guilt than anything else. If the media, however, keep bleating about death cults and providing links to Bebo tribute pages, they are going to turn this into something other than a tragedy.